prizume /prɪˈzjuːm/ verb: to work out what a share price is assuming about a company's future.

What is this price assuming?

Prizume reads a company's own SEC filings and answers in one plain sentence.

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Free for students · No tips, no buy or sell calls · 457 S&P 500 companies, valued 28 Oct 2026

AAPLAppleExpensive

At $345.56, Apple's price assumes its cash flow grows 15% a year for ten years.

What the price assumes15.0% a year

What Apple did, 2016 to 20256.4% a year

worth $95–$170price $345.56

Was the market right about Apple before?

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Price of 28 Oct 2026 · cash flow from the fiscal 2025 annual report · 8% required return, 2.5% growth after year ten

Open Apple's full page

The evidence

Was the market right before?

Every April since 2012 we recorded what 59 companies' prices assumed. Years later we checked what they delivered. 605 readings.

When the price was too cautious63%the shares beat the S&P 500 over the next 3 years this often. n = 255

When the price was too hopeful25%they beat it this often. n = 213

All readings44%the base rate, for comparison. n = 605

Judged with hindsight. “Too cautious” can only be known afterwards, once the growth has happened, so this is not a signal to trade on. It shows what matters: whether a company does better or worse than its price assumes. Judging that in advance is the skill Prizume teaches.

Where we were wrong. We also tested our own cheap-or-expensive verdict. Shares we called well below value beat the S&P 500 over 3 years 39% of the time (n = 296); ones we called expensive, 50% (n = 157). On its own, the verdict did not predict returns.

These companies are still large today, so the sample leans towards winners. Read the method

Proof

Can you prove the call was made before the result?

Yes. A forecast is locked with a digital fingerprint before the company reports, then scored against what it files. Nobody can edit it afterwards, including us.

See the public proof log

Example forecast

Apple's revenue for the quarter to December 2026 will be $128.0B to $136.0B. I'm 80% sure.

1 · Sealed before the result: its fingerprint39c22f9d91e26c30c2b4faf6615ec2ed3ccd6312af6c5747dd2dc8ef564cad54

2 · Revealed after the 10-Q is filed, and checkedSame words give the same fingerprint, so the forecast can't have been changed. Then it is scored: inside the band or not, and how sure you were.